Tuesday, 26 October, 2021


International Monetary Fund maintains S. Korea’s 2021 economic growth outlook at 3

Stores Reopen Under Strict Conditions As Lockdown Measures Ease Sean Gallup Getty Images By Bjarke Smith Meyer
Conrad Doyle | 06 April, 2021, 22:41

The International Monetary Fund has raised its forecasts for both the USA and the global economies, crediting rapid COVID-19 vaccine rollouts and relief efforts.

The latest WEO showed that the United States would be the only large advanced economy projected to surpass the level of gross domestic product (GDP) it was forecast to have in 2022 in the absence of this pandemic.

The IMF has upgraded both its United Kingdom and global forecasts compared with what it projected in January.

CARE Ratings Chief Economist Madan Sabnavis said 12.5 per cent economic growth for India in the current financial year was "very unlikely", as rising Covid-19 cases were resulting in regional lockdowns.

Britain has suffered Europe's highest coronavirus death toll and its economy shrank by nearly 10 per cent previous year, the worst performance among the region's big economies except for Spain.

Further commenting on the unemployment ratio in the country, the International Monetary Fund report highlighted that joblessness would remain around five percent in the country this fiscal year and would follow a declining trend in 2022 to remain at 4.8 percent. The average annual loss in per capita GDP over 2020-24, relative to pre-pandemic forecasts, was projected to be 5.7 per cent in low-income countries and 4.7 per cent in emerging markets, while in advanced economies the losses were expected to be smaller at 2.3 per cent, she said.

She cautioned that a six-month delay in having widespread vaccinations in advanced economies and nine months for emerging and developing economies would hinder the economic recovery.

As the International Monetary Fund continues to encourage countries with fiscal room to continue spending through the recovery, its chief economist said investment into infrastructure is one way to boost economic activity.

Yellen recently called on the 20 largest economies to work together to "stop the race to the bottom" by setting a new minimum that would allow governments more stability in collecting tax revenue.

China, where the COVID-19 pandemic first broke out in December 2019, has recovered more rapidly than other countries, but at the cost of a further buildup in vulnerabilities, particularly risky corporate debt, it said. Concerns about the credit quality of hard-hit borrowers and the profitability outlook are likely to weigh on the risk appetite of banks during the recovery, said the report.

IMF Chief Economist Gita Gopinath said that the fund has been calling for worldwide cooperation on tax policy "for a long time", adding that different corporate tax rates around the world have fueled tax shifting and avoidance. "Close to 95 million more people are estimated to have fallen below the threshold of extreme poverty in 2020 compared with pre-pandemic projections". "However, emerging market economies and low-income developing countries have been hit harder and are expected to suffer more significant medium-term losses". The path of the pandemic and the ability of the authorities to provide policy support will be important for that outcome.

Countries with weaker positions or limited access to vaccines may also face portfolio outflows.

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