Saturday, 18 September, 2021


National weather forecast: Severe storm risk issued for Gulf Coast

Storm 5 Alert: Damaging winds, flooding and isolated tornadoes possible Thursday First Alert Forecast (3/24AM)
Melba Vasquez | 24 March, 2021, 20:19

The other scenario shows the possibility of a tornado outbreak for parts of Alabama and Mississippi. Those showers will push into the parts of the Valley later this morning bringing scattered showers for the Shoals through midday.

One has rain and storms near the coast disrupting the evolution of stronger storms farther north. As we go through our Thursday, rain will be possible for most of the day, but severe activity will push to the east through the day. High temperatures Tuesday will be a bit cooler, staying into the mid 60s for most.

However it should be noted that Thursday's forecast confidence is still on the lower side - it could be a milder storm event - or it could be significant with long-track tornadoes.

Another chance of severe weather may materialize early next week. I am expecting a few chances of severe weather in the next few weeks.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Storm Prediction Center is warning that tornadoes on Thursday could be long-track and strong.

On Wednesday into that night, the SPC is forecasting the chance for severe weather from central Texas through MS, with the greatest risk in southeastern Arkansas, northeastern Louisiana and western Mississippi. A surface cyclone will develop in response to this storm aloft with a deepening surface cyclone. These spurts of heavy rain could cause flash flooding. A marginal risk means isolated severe storms will be possible. All threats will be possible, but the focus will be on damaging winds and large hail.

The specific timing on these storms is still too early to know, but computer model guidance suggests multiple rounds of storms possible during the day Thursday and into that night.

The forecasted conditions for fire weather include strong gusting winds and low humidity across the region.

By Friday, most of the South should dry out except for parts of Georgia and the Carolinas, where weakening showers and isolated thunderstorms could linger.

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