Saturday, 31 July, 2021


Canada could see 60K daily COVID-19 cases by year-end, modelling predicts

Trudeau to address Canadians on COVID-19 as Tam releases sobering new projections Feds set to release alarming new COVID-19 modelling in Canada
Patty Aguilar | 20 November, 2020, 20:57

Canada's chief public health officer says there's "urgency" to bring infections down as officials released dire new forecasts indicating that COVID-19 case counts have far surpassed levels seen during the first wave. Dr.

And, in the short term, Canada is projected to hit between 366,500 to 378,600 total cases, and between 11,870 to 12,120 deaths by November 30.

The modelling predicts that at current rates of contact, Canada is careening towards a surge of more than 20,000 cases per day by the end of December, but could hit 60,000 if socialization increases.

The current daily case count is already straining the health care system across the nation.

"To date, there are about 52,000 active cases in Canada, and despite having over 315,000 cumulative cases, less than one per cent of the population across the country has tested positive for COVID-19 to date", Tam said Friday. "An average of about 4,800 cases are now being reported daily".

But to drive that number under 10,000 cases a day by the end of the year, Canadians would need to limit their interactions to essential activities while maintaining physical distancing and adhering to other public health guidelines.

At a press conference on Friday, Dr. Theresa Tam released an updated National Epidemiology and Modelling framework, which the country uses to inform management of COVID-19.

Across Canada, deaths and hospitalizations from COVID-19 continue to mount as the second wave resurgence spreads from younger adult populations into elderly groups and more vulnerable settings, like long-term-care homes.

Tam and Njoo said while schools are still fairly safe environments, if families have children in school, they should reduce their own contacts outside their households. "Keep to those right now, because that is going to reduce the contact rates substantially", Tam said.

A combined effort by individuals and public health authorities is needed, Tam said. Thankfully, recovery rates remain high, around 80 per cent nationwide while the newest cases are still considered ill.

The modelling says that there are more outbreaks now, those outbreaks are larger - more than 50 cases each - and they are affecting long-term care homes.

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