Wednesday, 03 March, 2021


United Kingdom economy rebounds 15.5% in third quarter

Bank of England said the UK economy was likely to shrink by a record 11 per cent in 2020 India Faces 'Technical Recession' for the First Time in History, 'Nowcasts' RBI
Melba Vasquez | 12 November, 2020, 20:27

"India has entered a technical recession in the first half of 2020-21 for the first time in its history", the economists wrote.

The central bank's preliminary estimates show a jump in household financial savings to 21.4 per cent of the gross domestic product (GDP) in the first quarter of 2020-21, up from 7.9 per cent in Q1 and 10 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2019-20.

"India has entered into recession for the first time in history".

But that failed to make up for its almost 20 per cent crash in the second quarter, which included most the period when the country was in the grip of its first coronavirus lockdown. "Mr Modi's actions have turned India's strength into its weakness", he said on Twitter.

The government is expected to publish the official statistics on November 27, Bloomberg reported. If this upturn is sustained, the Indian economy will return to growth in the October-December quarter, earlier than projected by Governor Shaktikanta Das last month, when he pledged to keep monetary policy accommodative.

The NSO estimates for the second quarter, which are expected in November-end, will formally bear out the extent of improvement that occurred in the quarter gone by, the RBI said in a 'State of the Economy' report.

The economy shrank by a record 19.8% in the second quarter after a 2.5% contraction in the prior three months, meeting the technical definition of a recession.

In the RBI bulletin, the authors cautioned "there is a grave risk of generalization of price pressures, unanchoring of inflation expectations feeding into a loss of credibility in policy interventions". They also highlighted risks to global growth from a second wave of coronavirus infections.

As millions lost their jobs, consumers restrained themselves from spending money, choosing to hold onto their cash.

The "yawning gap" between credit extended and deposits mobilised during the April-June period contributed to the spike in household financial savings as the financial instruments relating to banks continue to dominate the household financial assets and liabilities, it said.

The estimated increase in financial savings looks consistent with other macroeconomic statistics, in particular the decline in private final consumption expenditure and the surplus position in the external current account, it said.

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