Sunday, 13 October, 2019


IMF Head Warns Global Economy Experiencing Slowdown Amid Trade Tensions

The IMF's new chief unveils data showing trade conflicts could wipe out $700 billion in global GDP by 2020 IMF warning: 'Serious risk' global slowdown will spread
Bennie Garza | 09 October, 2019, 14:34

The effects of trade conflicts would lead to a loss of around $700 billion or 0.8% reduction in GDP output by 2020.

U.S. President Donald Trump has insisted that the U.S. economy has not been affected by the higher tariffs he has imposed on China and other nations, which have triggered retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods.

Global trade growth has come to a "near standstill", she claimed. "And yet, unless we act now, we are risking a potential more massive slowdown", Georgieva said at an event to preview International Monetary Fund and World Bank annual meetings next week in Washington.

"Two years ago, the global economy was in a synchronized upswing".

The IMF Managing Director said that global growth could fall to its lowest this decade as part of the slowdown, adding that the agency's outlook, due next week, will cut growth estimates for both 2019 and 2020.

And even if growth resurges next year, some of the "rifts" already caused by the trade conflicts could cause "changes that last a generation", such as shifting supply chains, she said.

The assessment came as China and the USA were set to resume high-level trade talks in Washington this week after a five-month hiatus, though the prospect of reaching a final deal in the near future to end the bitter trade war between the world's two largest economies remains low. "But it is worth it", she said.

"Trade uncertainty is an important factor in the slowdown", Mr. Malpass said in an interview with The Wall Street Journal, but "growth could accelerate if the nontrade aspects of this were improved".

To protect against a sharp global slowdown, Georgieva called on countries with funds available to deploy their "fiscal firepower".

Georgieva made this review a week sooner than the joint Annual Assembly between the International Monetary Fund and World Bank (WB) all over which both establishments will fresh their economic projections in a gathering of high central bankers and economic system ministers.

If a synchronised slowdown in world economies worsens, she said, the world may need a "synchronised policy response" along the lines of stimulus efforts enacted during the 2008-2009 financial crisis.

"The right reforms in the right sequence could double the speed at which emerging markets and developing economies reach the living standards of the advanced economies", Georgieva said. "The world economy is still growing, it is just growing too slowly".

Georgieva called on the global community to "work together, now, and find a lasting solution on trade". The key, she said, is to recognize that "inequalities are a drag on multilateralism and drag on growth". Trade disputes are taking a toll on global economy, substantially weakening manufacturing activity and investment and holding back economic potential, Kristalina Georgieva said on Tuesday.

She urged countries like Germany, South Korea and the Netherlands to boost spending to stimulate growth.

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