Sunday, 22 September, 2019


Trump Urges Fed Cut of 100 Basis Points, Cites World Economy

US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and White House trade advisor Peter Navarro are working to revive stalled trade talks with China White House economic advisor Larry Kudlow said Recession 2019: Trump Says It Won't Happen, 'We’re Doing Tremendously Well'
Conrad Doyle | 20 August, 2019, 00:24

He also brushed aside a wave of expert opinion predicting a recession by 2021 or earlier on account of his trade war against the rest of the world.

A majority of economists expect a USA recession in the next two years, but have pushed back the onset amid Federal Reserve actions, according to a survey released Monday.

Only two percent of the 226 respondents now see a recession this year, compared to 10 percent in February's survey, NABE said.

More economists shifted their recession prediction to 2021, narrowing the gap from the prior report, which had many more expecting the change next year.

However, "the panel is split regarding whether the downturn will hit in 2020 or 2021", Hunter said in a summary of the survey, which showed 38 percent expect a contraction of growth next year, while 34 percent don't see it until the following year.

Donald Trump has tried to reassure markets about the risk of the U.S. falling into a recession by saying the economy is doing "tremendously well".

Last week, financial markets indicated a recession could be on the way. "Our consumers are rich", Trump told reporters Sunday.

In two tweets Monday, Trump kept up his pressure on the Fed and its chairman Jerome Powell, saying the US economy was strong "despite the horrendous lack of vision by Jay Powell and the Fed". And Wednesday, the bond markets sounded their own warning when the yields on 10-year Treasury bonds briefly fell below those on two-year Treasury bonds.

"I think I could be helped out by the Fed", Trump said Sunday. "I gave a tremendous tax cut and they're loaded-up with money".

Over the past year, Trump has kept up a steady drumbeat of attacks on Powell.

President Trump on Monday took aim at the Federal Reserve and its chairman, Jerome Powell, in a series of tweets and urged the central bank lower rates and restart quantitative easing. -China trade war, which has already seen the US slap tariffs on $250 billion in Chinese goods. It cited a number of "uncertainties" that were threatening the country's decade-long expansion, from Trump's trade battles to slowing global growth. The U.S.is set to implement a 10% tariff on an additional $300 billion in Chinese imports starting on September 1. -China trade negotiations. Only 5% predicted that a comprehensive trade deal would result, 64% suggested a superficial agreement was possible and almost 25% expected nothing to be agreed upon by the two countries.

The economists surveyed by the NABE were skeptical about prospects for success of the latest round of U.S.

As a whole, the business economists' recent responses have represented a rebuke of the Trump administration's overall approach to the economy. Navarro said the relatively strong USA economy is driving investment dollars into the US bond market and driving down long-term yields.

"Most economists actually say we are not going to have a recession".

The survey showed a steep decline in the percentage of economists who found the $1.5 trillion in tax cuts over the next decade "too stimulative" and likely to produce higher budget deficits that should be reduced, to 51% now from 71% in August 2018.

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