Tuesday, 18 February, 2020


China's Q2 GDP slowing slowly

China June industrial output up 6.3% year on year beats forecasts retail sales up 9.8 China's Q2 GDP slowing slowly
Conrad Doyle | 15 July, 2019, 11:45

China's economy slowed to the weakest pace since quarterly data began in 1992 amid the ongoing trade standoff with the US, while monthly indicators provided signs that a stabilisation is emerging.

The 6.2% figure released by the national bureau of statistics on Monday was in line with forecasts by analysts and down from an expansion of 6.4% in the first quarter.

China's trading partners and financial markets are closely watching the health of the world's second-largest economy as the Sino-US trade war gets longer and costlier, fuelling worries of a global recession. This article is strictly for informational purposes only.

"The Chinese government will not allow the quarterly growth to fall below 6.0 (percent)", he said in a note.

"The current economic situation remains tough and complicated both at home and overseas with slowing global economic growth, increasing external uncertainties and imbalanced development at home", NBS spokesperson Mao Shengyong said at a press conference (link in Chinese) on Monday.

"Cutting the benchmark deposit and lending rates - the likelihood is very low".

Value-added industrial output, which measures production at factories, mines and utilities, rose 6.3% (link in Chinese) year-on-year in June, up from 5% growth in the previous month.

However, analysts say robust growth in property investment has been mainly due to aggressive land bidding by developers this year, while actual construction activity has slowed.

The slowdown underlines the pressure that Chinese policy makers face as they attempt to negotiate a deal with the USA on trade, while the economy takes another step down in the long-term deceleration from the heady expansion of the mid-2000s.

High-level trade talks to resolve the issues resumed this month, but the gulf between the two sides remains wide. "It's more possible (that) they twist the market-oriented rates - cutting the interest rates of all those liquidity facilities also sends an important signal to the market", said Aidan Yao, senior Asia emerging markets economist at AXA Investment Managers in Hong Kong.

The contribution from net exports will decline as domestic demand gradually recovers, Zhu told the official Financial News ahead of the Q2 data, adding that he expects economic growth to slow to 5.8% next year.

Daily output for crude steel and aluminium both rose to record levels.

Retail sales for June rose 9.8% in annual terms.

Online sales surged 17.8 percent year on year to 4.82 trillion yuan in the first half, 2.5 percentage points faster than the first quarter.

Some analysts, however, questioned the apparent recovery in both output and sales.

"The monthly data were better than expected".

Fixed asset investment growth in the first half accelerated at private firms, whereas state companies eased back, a further sign that government efforts to funnel cash to the private sector may be bearing fruit.

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