Tuesday, 21 May, 2019


Oil Firm on Strong Economic Data, Supply Risks

Oil Firm on Strong Economic Data, Supply Risks Oil Firm on Strong Economic Data, Supply Risks
Conrad Doyle | 08 April, 2019, 08:36

Both contracts hit new five-month highs in the process.

That left Brent up 4.1% for the week, its second consecutive positive week.

The bullish theme continued last week with prices primarily underpinned by the highly successful OPEC-led production cuts that have trimmed the global supply glut while stabilizing prices.

Oil prices have further been driven up by USA sanctions against OPEC-members Iran and Venezuela.

"With the new Permian pipelines (from July), we can see a boost of 500,000 to 600,000 bpd in USA exports", FGE said. -China trade talks reaching some closure.

Oil prices climbed more than 1 percent on Friday as strong US employment data tempered fears that global crude demand might weaken, and on expectations that an escalating conflict in Libya could tighten oil supplies.

Eastern Libyan commander Khalifa Haftar ordered his troops on Thursday to march on Tripoli, escalating a conflict with the internationally recognized government.

US energy companies this week increased the number of oil drilling rigs for first time in seven weeks, General Electric Co's Baker Hughes energy services firm said in its report on Friday. Profit booking might be behind the fall in oil prices. First, better than expected manufacturing PMI data helped dim worries about lower demand.

Prices have also been lifted this week by signs that the US and China are finally on track to resolve the trade dispute that has long cast a shadow over the global economy.

Prices could rally early next week on the back of a report from Platts, released over the week-end.

According to energy consultancy FGE, the supply cuts from Opec removes excess inventories, and the market "looks healthy".

One variable is whether the President Donald Trump administration will extend sanctions waivers on eight countries importing Iranian oil and he has until May 2 to decide.

Technical factors could play a role in this week's price action with WTI bumping up against a key level at $63.45 and Brent nearing $71.77. WTI is pulling away from its major support at $59.63 and Brent from its major support at $67.90.

With Thursday's Brent milestone, Saudi Arabia has shown its success in bringing oil prices back from last fall's 40% market crash through aggressive production cuts engineered with its allies in OPEC, as well as 10 other oil producing countries led by Russian Federation.

Many believe that the conflicts in Libya would settle down soon and they won't affect the country's oil output as they are not now doing so.

"The developing situation in Libya is also supportive, but, for now the oil is continuing to flow and will likely continue to do so", said John Kilduff, a partner at Again Capital LLC in NY.

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