Thursday, 21 March, 2019


OECD Cuts Global Economic Growth Forecasts Again

OECD says no-deal Brexit could spark 'near-term recession' | London Business News Growth is dragged down by trade wars and Brexit
Conrad Doyle | 08 March, 2019, 20:30

The OECD also blamed the slowdown of the Chinese economy, along with weakening global trade.

Global economic growth is slowing, driven by vulnerabilities arising from China and the weakening European economy, coupled with a slowdown in global trade growth, the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development said Wednesday.

Booming exports should buoy the economy to see a 2.3-percent growth in 2020, the OECD said.

For more, Stephen Carroll speaks to the OECD's chief economist Laurence Boone. However, the most striking point was the strong downgrade of Eurozone GDP growth, which it now forecasts at only 1% when only a few months ago it was expecting 1.8%.

The warning came as the OECD also slashed its growth forecast for the United Kingdom to 0.8 per cent for 2019 and 0.9 per cent for 2020, down from the 1.4 per cent and 1.1 per cent projected respectively in November. At the heart of the impasse is the Irish "backstop", a policy May accepted in the withdrawal deal to ensure no return to a hard border between the British province of Northern Ireland and European Union member the Republic of Ireland after Brexit.

It made growth downgrades in almost all G20 economies and called for "coordinated policy action" across the globe if the slowdown is sharper than expected.

Meanwhile, trade restrictions imposed previous year - notably by the United States and China - are "a drag on growth, investment and living standards, particularly for low-income households", the OECD said. Italy's economy is expected to contract this year.

The latest update from the OECD saw the organisation trim not just global growth expectations, but also growth expectations for virtually every major economy on the planet.

Argentina's economy, the third largest in Latin America after Brazil and Mexico, had a volatile year in 2018, with inflation running at close to 50 percent and its currency diving against the US dollar. "A disorderly exit would economies the costs for the European people". However, the 2020 growth rate was increased from 2.7 percent to 3.2 percent.

The key reason for the pessimistic approach, according to the ministry, was the weak growth trend in China and in the Eurozone, as well as the global slowdown amid trade tensions.

"A sharper slowdown in any of the major regions could derail activity worldwide, especially if it spills over to financial markets", Boone said in a statement.

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