Friday, 16 November, 2018


Crude oil futures fall 0.31 per cent on weak global cues

Oil price falls to $75 from high of $86 US passes Russia, briefly, to become world's top oil producer
Conrad Doyle | 03 November, 2018, 05:12

U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude ended Thursday's trading session down $1.62, or 2.5%, at a almost seven-month low of $63.69 per barrel, Kallanish Energy reports. WTI is now more than $11 below its October 3 high of $76.90.

Reports from the United States suggesting a possible waiver for India and other major Iran oil importers, experts say, could keep Brent range-bound between $70-80 per barrel this year. But on Monday, trying to dismiss such concerns, Saudi Arabia's Energy Minister Khalid Al-Falih said that "there is no intention" for such action, and that Saudi Arabia would play a "constructive and responsible role" in world energy markets.

On Thursday, oil prices rose as investors were encouraged by a strong rebound in the US stock markets. Both stock markets and crude futures jumped in early October before selling off sharply.

-China trade war kept pressure on the market.

While futures in NY edged higher on Friday on signs of a possible trade deal between the US and China, they're still on course for a 5.7 percent weekly loss.

But there's another similarity between July 2016 and October 2018.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) on Tuesday said that high oil prices were hurting consumers and could dent fuel demand at a time of slowing global economic activity.

At the same time, forecasters now think oil consumption growth will be weaker than previously anticipated.

New U.S. sanctions on Iran begin on November 4 and Washington has made it clear to Tehran's customers that it expects them to stop buying any Iranian crude oil from that date.

"We still expect that the global oil market will be in deficit in 4Q18", the U.S. bank said. "We can not end oil imports from Iran at a time when alternatives are costly", noted the Indian government, as quoted by Reuters. Analysts also believe that the surge in output has resulted in Contango scenario which implies that prices for future delivery are higher than for immediate dispatch resulting in traders stocking up on oil for later sale in trading market resulting in traders and investors increasing their positions for short term.

Prices were pressured as USA inventories were expected to rise for a sixth straight week as other top producers Saudi Arabia and Russian Federation signaled potential output increases. US light crude CLc1 was 60 cents lower at $66.44. Brent was up 29 percent over the same period.

The WTI Crude Oil market fell significantly during the trading session on Tuesday after gapping lower, breaking below the major uptrend line. WTI picked up 0.26 dollar to settle at 67.59 dollars a barrel.

The market could get some clarity next week, when sanctions on Iran's energy industry go back into full force.

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