Sunday, 21 October, 2018


Eakinomics: September Jobs Report Prediction

Conrad Doyle | 08 October, 2018, 06:23

The US economy continued to smash expectations and break records in September, with recently released data showing the unemployment rate dropping to just 3.7%; the lowest level since December 1969.

Analysts polled by Refinitiv (formerly Thomson Reuters) forecast that the USA economy would add 185,000 jobs in September with the unemployment rate ticking down to 3.8 percent. If the labor market were as tight as implied by the Fed's estimate of full employment, job growth this strong would likely place significant upward pressure on wages.

The historically low US unemployment rate fell again during the month of September, but about 50,000 fewer jobs were added to the economy than experts predicted. The health of the USA economy and reinforced rate rise expectations helped to trigger the sell-off in Treasuries, sending the yield on the 10-year paper to 3.23 per cent this week, its highest level in seven years.

Average hourly earnings are forecast to have risen 0.3% month-on-month and 2.8% year-on-year.

The unemployment rate has dropped to the lowest rate since December 1969.

Canada as a whole added 229,100 jobs in September of 2017 compared to September 2018.

"The jobs report these days has become more about inflation than payrolls", and "the big picture should ease concerns about inflation", said Russell Price, a senior economist at Ameriprise Financial Inc.in Detroit.

So far this year, the average number of jobs created each month is than last year.

Wall Street closed down sharply following the news, extending losses from Thursday's selloff due to a sudden jump in bond yields. As business demand for workers continues to rise, attractive wages and benefits are luring a growing number of persons from the sidelines back into the workforce (See "Rising US prime working-age labor participation").

The last time the United States jobless rate was so low preceded more than a decade of economic pain tied to rising price pressures and efforts to rein them in. In the Household Survey, employment rose 420,000, reversing August's 423,000 fall.

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