Wednesday, 17 October, 2018


Tropical Depression could form by late this weekend

Source NOAA Source NOAA
Kristine Garrett | 07 October, 2018, 16:28

Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen is brewing off the coast of Cancun in Mexico. The forecast is for this to become Tropical Storm Michael either late Sunday or early Monday morning.

Forecast models are showing that the low will drift into the Gulf of Mexico by Monday, and there it is expected to strengthen as it drifts north then turns northeast. The title of PTC 14 allows the National Hurricane Center to issue a forecast cone and advisories even though the disturbance hasn't reached tropical storm strength yet. A cold front moving through the Brazos Valley mid-week should keep any tropical activity east of Texas and impacts felt here very minimal.

As of the update, the storm was moving northwest at 6 miles per hour with maximum sustained winds at 30 miles per hour. Those from Appalachicola to the Gulf coasts of Alabama and MS need to closely monitor the forecast, this system could potentially be a hurricane in the Gulf.

A tropical depression could form by late this weekend or early next week over the northwestern Caribbean Sea or Gulf of Mexico while the system moves northwestward to northward.

Alabama, Mississippi and the Florida panhandled will get the worst of the wind and rain, Masters said.

This general motion with some increase in forward speed is expected over the next few days.

Invest 91 L has been given an 80% chance of development within the next 2 days, and a 90% chance within the next 5 days.

Western Cuba can expect 3 to 7 inches of rain, with 12 inches possible in some areas, according to the center.

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