Monday, 22 October, 2018


Oil price steady at four-year high as supply concerns remain

King Salman bin Abdulaziz King Salman bin Abdulaziz
Conrad Doyle | 03 October, 2018, 16:41

The refiners felt that "OPEC should seriously consider a special price for India".

"It is either too much or too little".

Despite the market's bullish sentiment in recent days, JBC noted that oil inventories aren't drawing down the way they were at this time past year, and said there are some signs of slackening demand for oil. Crude oil exports increased by 273,000 barrels per day from the previous week's levels to 2.64 million barrels per day. Analysts say prices likely will go higher as American sanctions on Iran resume in November.

"Crude prices continued their meteoric rise as Canada and (the) US updated the NAFTA treaty, which would augur well for economic growth", said Sukrit Vijayakar, director of energy consultancy Trifecta. While trade tensions still remain, the deal caps a turbulent period the US and Canada, traditionally close allies on national security and trade.

Investors have indicated that they see prices rising, loading up on options that give the holder the right to buy Brent at $90 by the end of October. However, the market's main focus is the potential supply deficit due to sanctions targeting Iran.

The pair discussed the stability of the oil market and the strategic partnership between the two countries, Al Arabiya TV reported, without providing more details.

A market source says buy orders have been triggered by reports that talks between the USA and Saudi Arabia over the weekend failed to produce tangible results leading to stable supplies.

Portfolio managers have raised their combined net long position by a total of 196 million barrels over the last five weeks, according to exchange and regulatory data.

But where the committee sees a balanced market and warned about downside risks to demand in 2019, traders see a market that is increasingly tight and are anxious about the adequacy of future supply.

Global trade conditions seemed worsened.

Analysts said that OPEC and Russian Federation appear unlikely to immediately boost production as Trump has demanded.

Rapidan expects US crude supply alone to grow faster than total global consumption.

First though, Energy Aspects is calling for the final quarter of 2018 to have the tightest supply-demand balance in over a decade.

Yet Hansen said he was "struggling to see" the price reaching $100 a barrel.

The recent rise in oil prices confirms closely to the traditional boom-bust pattern. "Otherwise, the price differentials between the two major oil benchmarks will not narrow down".

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