Tuesday, 16 October, 2018


United States jobless rate drops to 3.9%. in July; 157000 new jobs created

The unemployment rate fell to 3.9% in July	 	 	 			Unemployment stands at 4% close to an 18-year low The unemployment rate fell to 3.9% in July Unemployment stands at 4% close to an 18-year low
Conrad Doyle | 05 August, 2018, 20:12

Some envision the unemployment rate dropping as low as 3.5 percent by the end of 2018.

The world's largest economy also had a net gain of 157,000 jobs, which is less than the monthly average so far this year.

Since the beginning of this year, the USA has seen multiple economic milestones in addition to 1.5 million new jobs.

"I've never seen such a steady stream of gains - there's no volatility in the numbers", said Ellen Zentner, chief US economist at Morgan Stanley.

Hiring sizzled in July in business services, manufacturing and hospitality.

Although the overall gain for July came in slightly below expectations, figures for payroll increases in May and June were revised substantially higher. "@POTUS is keeping his promise to restore our economy and put Americans back to work", said Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross in an August 3 tweet.

Neil Dutta, an economist at Renaissance Macro, said following Friday's report that, "The important point is that there is no sign of overheating but that aggregate wages and salaries (jobs x hours x earnings) are growing at a brisk pace". Despite many company executives complaining that they can not find workers to fill open positions, wage growth remains sluggish. (With revisions, it was 224,000, compared with 184,000 in the same period last year and 181,000 in 2016.) "It is incredible that at this point in a recovery you are seeing growth that is on average faster than the previous two years", she said.

Another month of sluggish wage gains could help cool fears the economy could be overheating but are unlikely to dissuade the Federal Reserve from raising interest rates next month for the third time this year.

One signal that July was a strong month can be found in the low number of people filing for unemployment benefits for the first time. Construction gained 19,000 jobs, but retail trade only 7,000.

"It appears to be that the strength of fiscal stimulus measures are outweighing any kind of effect of trade tensions", said Wright from iCIMS. Mining employment registered its first decline in 10 months in July (-4,000) but is likely to bounce back with higher energy prices propelling activity in the sector.

"Job gains occurred in professional and business services, in manufacturing, and in health care and social assistance" the report says.

The drop in government payrolls was concentrated in local governments, which shed 20,000 jobs. The number of part-time workers who would prefer full-time work has fallen almost 13 per cent in the past year and now stands at 4.6 million.

Although the labor force participation rate was unchanged at 62.9%, it increased for the prime working-age cohort (25-54 years).

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