Issuing its first Long Range Forecast (LRF) for southwest monsoon on Monday, the Indian Meteorological Department predicted normal rainfall this year. Monsoon is considered to be normal when rainfall is between 96% and 104% of the 50-year average.
A normal monsoon will not only aid agriculture growth but could have a positive impact on the overall rural economy.
"India will receive normal monsoon this year".
The top IMD official said there was "very less probability" of a deficient Monsoon this year, and added that the date of onset of Monsoon will be declared in the middle of the month of May.
The IMD, meanwhile, said it would be able to forecast a clearer picture of the Monsoon, which normally extends from June 1 to September 30, only in June.
However, the arrival of the monsoon and its distribution would play an important part so far as the economy was concerned, experts said.
A figure between 96 and 104 per cent of rainfall indicates a normal monsoon and between 105 and 110 per cent above normal.
Anything less than 90 per cent of LPA is termed a "deficient" monsoon, and 90-96 per cent of the same is considered "below normal".
Private weather forecasting agency Skymet has said rainfall in 2018 will be normal at 100 per cent of the LPA.
According to IMD, there is 42 per cent possibility of normal rainfall and 12 per cent possibility of above normal rainfall - it means there are good chances of normal rainfall in the country.
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