Sunday, 21 October, 2018


OECD Sees Better Outlook, if Trade Escalation Avoided

OECD forecasts for growth in 2018 and 2019 OECD forecasts for growth in 2018 and 2019
Conrad Doyle | 13 March, 2018, 14:54

Growth will particularly be powered by private investment and trade picking up on the back of strong business and household confidence, the OECD said.

However, the report also warned that "an escalation of trade tensions is a serious risk" following Trump's decision to introduce tariffs on steel and aluminium imports.

The OECD predicts the fastest world growth since 2011 this year, helped by U.S. tax cuts and spending in Germany.

Updating its outlook for the G20, the OECD, which groups 34 of the world's leading economies, raised its global growth forecast for 2018 and 2019 to 3.9 percent - the highest since 2011 - from a previous estimate of 3.6 percent for both years.

However, it said the global economy was vulnerable to an eruption of trade tensions after the Trump administration imposed import tariffs on steel and aluminum, a move that is expected to prompt retaliation from Europe and others.

The latest round of protectionism was triggered by US steep tariffs on imported steel and aluminum.

Britain was seen missing out on the global upturn, lagging all other G20 countries with growth of only 1.3 percent this year.

Britain is set to miss out on buoyant global economic growth over the next two years, according to new forecasts by the Organisation for Economic Co-Operation and Development (OECD).

The body's Interim Economic Outlook - released as Chancellor Philip Hammond was preparing to paint a hopeful picture of Britain's prospects in his spring statement - nudges predicted United Kingdom growth for 2018 up by a tenth of a percentage point to 1.3%.

For South Africa, the OECD has revised the expected GDP growth rate upward to 1.9% in 2018, and 2.1% in 2019 - higher than the growth rate now targeted by National Treasury.

Last week, Stats SA reported higher than expected GDP growth for South Africa in 2017, showing that the economy grew by 1.3%, exceeding National Treasury's expectation of 1.0%. The OECD, which groups 35 developed economies, called on the world's major nations to avoid a dispute that could impede trade, demand, competition and, ultimately, the health of the global economy.

"Safeguarding the rules-based worldwide trading system will help to support growth and jobs", it said.

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