Tuesday, 21 November, 2017

US PPI beats with 0.4% - EUR/USD slips from the highs

Shoppers line up around the block to visit a pop up store featuring fashion by Kanye West in Manhattan New York U.S Shoppers line up around the block to visit a pop up store featuring fashion by Kanye West in Manhattan New York Thomson Reuters
Conrad Doyle | 15 November, 2017, 04:27

Prices at the wholesale level climbed 0.4 per cent in October and 2.8 per cent over the past year, biggest annual jump in more than five years and a sign that an improving economy may finally be reviving inflationary pressures. Producer prices rose 2.8% for the twelve months ended October 2017, the largest gain since the twelve months ended February 2012.

The index for energy goods such as oil and gas was unchanged for the month.

Persistently weak inflation this year has left Federal Reserve policymakers at odds over how fast to raise interest rates amid a strong jobs market.

Meanwhile, services PPI was up 0.5 percent sequentially, owing to trade services that rose 1.1 percent and transport and warehousing that rose 0.8 percent.

Today's report shows continued rebound in producer price pressures in October, although the solid rise in the headline measures probably exaggerates the degree of that strength, noted Barclays in a research report. It rose by 0.4% in September. Last month's rise in prices received by the nation's farms, factories and refineries reflected a 0.5 percent surge in the cost of services, mostly margins received by wholesalers and retailers. Excluding the volatile food and energy sectors, wholesale prices rose 0.3 in October from September.

"While not the primary measure of inflation, the consistent gradual improvement in producer prices over the past two years will be welcomed by Fed officials who, on balance, continue to express confidence in a gradually rising inflation outlook", said Sam Bullard, a senior economist at Wells Fargo Securities in Charlotte, North Carolina. Pipeline price pressures are expected to improve gradually. Year over year, PPI is up 2.8% and core PPI is up 2.4%.

Prices for final demand services grew 0.5%, following a 0.4% increase in September. Those costs feed into the core PCE price index.

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