Friday, 17 November, 2017

USA leads world in oil and gas production, IEA says

US on the cusp of history's biggest oil and gas boom, IEA forecasts IEA revises forecasts for global oil demand growth down
Conrad Doyle | 14 November, 2017, 21:22

The IEA, which tracks the energy for 29 countries, said the U.S. - once reliant on imports - is becoming the "undisputed global oil and gas leader".

The IEA also today released its latest World Energy Outlook, in which it said global oil demand will fall modestly due to the rise in electric cars.

The predictions come from the International Energy Agency's annual energy forecast.

Some ministers for the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries said an extension of an agreement that sidelines about 2 percent of the total global demand for oil in an effort to balance the market was necessary next year.

"The scenario would see demand grow from 95.4 million barrels per day, in 2016, to reach 111.1 million barrels per day by 2040, with the global economy growing by an average of 3.5 per cent per year during that time".

The biggest threat to market balances, aside from a tempering in demand, is the growth in supply from non-OPEC nations.

"Yet this is precisely what is happening as a result of the USA shale revolution - both for oil and for natural gas", the IEA said.

"The U.S. [shale] oil industry avoided the blow by morphing into a leaner, more agile version of its former self; it has since proved remarkably resilient to lower prices", the IEA said.

USA oil prices have risen above $55 a barrel recently amid geopolitical tensions overseas, supply disruptions and an anticipated extension of OPEC's production cuts next year.

The United States can look forward to many more years of an unprecedented oil and gas boom.

OPEC also says in contrast to the IEA that demand will rise by 1.51 million bpd next year, up 130,000 bpd from previously, to 98.45 million bpd.

A study by Bank of America Merrill Lynch forecasts that pure electric vehicles would achieve a global penetration of 12 per cent in 2025, 34 per cent by 2030 and 90 per cent by 2050.

Oil inventories in the world's richest nations fell by 40 million barrels in September, breaking below 3.0 billion barrels for the first time in two years, driven in part by Hurricane Harvey, which shuttered much US refining capacity in August.

Some analysts even predict that with oil demand declining as EVs set to replace conventional fuel vehicles, oil price could plunge to as low as $10 a barrel over the next six to eight years.

Between 2017 and 2040 the IEA estimates that more solar power capacity will be added globally each year than any other source of energy, with an annual average increase of almost 70 gigawatts.

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